أبحاث
نجحت المقاومة الفلسطينية في إلحاق هزيمة غير مسبوقة بالاحتلال الإسرائيلي، فردَّت إسرائيل بشن عدوان على غزة بدعم غربي كامل، يهدف إلى القضاء على حماس، وإقامة سلطة موالية بغزة، لكن عوامل كثيرة قد تحول دون ذلك، كما حدث في حروب مشابهة.
بدأت الحرب بين المقاومة الفلسطينية وإسرائيل، في السادسة من صباح السابع من أكتوبر/تشرين الأول، بهجوم نوعي وواسع النطاق قامت به قوات القسام التابعة لحماس على معسكرات ومستوطنات إسرائيلية في محيط قطاع غزة. أطلقت حماس عمليتها، كما يبدو، ردًّا على الاعتداءات الإسرائيلية المتكررة منذ تشكيل حكومة نتنياهو على الحصار المفروض على غزة وتمدد المستوطنات في الضفة الغربية والتضييق على حياة الفلسطينيين ومعاشهم فيها، والإجراءات الإسرائيلية لتقسيم المسجد الأقصى الشريف مكانيًّا وزمانيًّا. والواضح، أن قيادة القسام بالرغم من تخطيطها لهجوم نوعي، في 7 أكتوبر/تشرين الأول، إلا أنها حققت إنجازات قد تكون فاقت تطلعاتها.
بعد ساعات من بدء الهجوم، كان مقر قيادة القوة العسكرية الإسرائيلية المكلفة بالتعامل مع قطاع غزة قد وقع تحت سيطرة المهاجمين الفلسطينيين، وأصيبت كافة القوات الإسرائيلية في جوار القطاع بالارتباك. خلال ما تبقى من يوم الحرب الأول، وبفعل الاضطراب الذي ساد محيط قطاع غزة، وتدخل مسلحين فلسطينيين آخرين وأناس عاديين، وقع في الأسر والحجز أعداد كبيرة من الجنود والمدنيين، فاقوا 200 شخص، وقتلت القوات الإسرائيلية، حسب تقارير إسرائيلية، أعدادًا كبيرة من المدنيين الإسرائيليين أثناء محاولاتها منع الفلسطينيين من أسرهم أو احتجازهم. وقد بلغ عدد القتلى الإسرائيليين نحو 1400 شخص، نصفهم جنود والبقية مدنيون.
منذ اليوم الثاني للحرب، بدأ الجانب الإسرائيلي قصفًا غير مسبوق لكافة مدن وبلدات قطاع غزة، اتسم في الأغلب بطابع عشوائي واستهدف إيقاع أكبر عدد من الخسائر بسكان القطاع وسكنهم وأماكن عملهم وتعليمهم. قُصفت عمارات متعددة الطوابق بدون إنذار وبعضها بإنذارات قصيرة جدًّا، ودُمِّرت معظم مباني الجامعتين الرئيستين في القطاع والعديد من المقار الحكومية، كما دمرت معامل وورشات صناعية صغيرة ومتوسطة. في أنحاء مختلفة، أصاب الدمار أحياء بأكملها، وارتفع عدد الشهداء بمعدلات هائلة حتى فاقوا 10000 شهيد بعد شهر من العدوان، نصفهم من النساء والأطفال.
بالرغم من أن عملية 7 أكتوبر/ تشرين الأول كانت، بأي مقياس عسكري ممكن، عملية محدودة، فقد وصفها مسؤولون إسرائيليون بالتهديد الوجودي لدولة إسرائيل. وسواء في خطاب أهداف الحرب على قطاع غزة، أو في استدعاء الدعم الغربي، تحدث المسؤولون الإسرائيليون بلغة البقاء أو الموت، و”إما نحن أو هم”.
ساعد خطاب التهديد الوجودي في حشد غير مسبوق للدول الغربية، سيما الولايات المتحدة، خلف إسرائيل. ولم يلبث قادة الدول الغربية أن توافدوا، الواحد منهم خلف الآخر، إلى تل أبيب للإعراب عن الدعم الكامل والمطلق وغير المشروط للحرب الإسرائيلية على قطاع غزة. رفضت الولايات المتحدة ودول أوروبا الغربية الرئيسة الدعوة لوقف إطلاق النار، ودعت لإعطاء إسرائيل فرصة لاستعادة الأمن وقوة الردع بالقضاء الكامل على تنظيم حماس العسكري والسياسي. ولكن صور الدمار والقتل غير التمييزي في قطاع غزة، وتصاعد حركات الاحتجاج على الحرب في العواصم الغربية، عملت على إحداث تغيير طفيف في مواقف الدول الغربية. فرنسا، مثلًا، صوتت في الجمعية العامة لصالح مشروع القرار العربي الداعي لوقف إطلاق النار. ومع بداية أسبوع الحرب الرابع، بدأت واشنطن في التوكيد على ضرورة إدخال الإعانات إلى قطاع غزة بوتيرة أكبر، كما دعت لهدنة إنسانية مؤقتة.
فإلى أين تمضي الحرب على غزة؟ وأية آثار سياسية يمكن أن تترتب عليها؟
المسار العسكري: القتال في متاهة
سارع رئيس الحكومة الإسرائيلي، بنيامين نتنياهو، إلى دعوة قادة المعارضة، الذين استجاب عدد منهم بالفعل، إلى تشكيل حكومة وحدة وطنية تدير الحرب. في البداية، أعلن نتنياهو أن هدف الحرب هو اقتلاع حماس نهائيًّا وكليًّا من قطاع غزة. ولكن صعوبة الحرب والضغوط التي مارسها معلقون إسرائيليون وقادة غربيون، إضافة إلى تظاهرات أهالي الأسرى، دفعته إلى صياغة أوسع نطاقًا: اقتلاع حماس وتدمير مقدراتها العسكرية واستعادة الأسرى.
كان واضحًا من البداية أن تحقيق هذين الهدفين، أو حتى الأول منهما، غير ممكن بدون اجتياح عسكري أرضي. ولكن الواضح أيضًا أن حكومة الحرب الإسرائيلية أظهرت ترددًا حول قرار الاجتياح الأرضي، حول حجمه وطبيعته، وحول مداه. أخيرًا، وفي نهاية أكتوبر/تشرين الأول، وبعد تنفيذ عدة عمليات عسكرية استكشافية أرضية، اعتمدت بالأساس على القصف الجوي، في شمال القطاع وجنوب مدينة غزة، بدأ الجيش الإسرائيلي اختراقًا أرضيًّا من ثلاثة محاور: شمال شرق القطاع، وشمال غرب القطاع، وجنوب مدينة غزة، للإحاطة بمدينة غزة، عاصمة القطاع.
واجهت الاختراقات الإسرائيلية مقاومة عنيدة من عناصر المقاومة الفلسطينية، وحتى نهاية الشهر الأول من الحرب لم تكن القوات الإسرائيلية قد أحرزت أي تقدم ملموس أبعد من ذلك الذي وصلت إليه في يوم الحرب البرية الأول. ولكن، قليلًا قليلًا، وببطء بالغ، حققت القوات الإسرائيلية بعض التقدم في شمال غرب قطاع غزة، وفي موازاة ساحل البحر المتوسط، وفي محور الاجتياح جنوب مدينة غزة باتجاه ساحل المتوسط. وكما قام المقاومون الفلسطينيون ببث أشرطة تظهر نجاح هجماتهم ضد وحدات الجيش الإسرائيلي المدرعة في مناطق الاشتباك، قام الجيش الإسرائيلي ببث أشرطة تظهر تصميم الجنود الإسرائيليين وتقدمهم في قطاع غزة. ولكن الأشرطة الإسرائيلية لم تقدم دليلًا واحدًا بعد على نجاح الجيش المهاجم في تحرير محتجز واحد، أو تدمير مركز عسكري واحد للمقاومة الفلسطينية، أو نفق أو مركز تخزين صواريخ واحد.
المهم، أن بدء عمليات الاجتياح البري لم يؤد إلى توقف القصف الجوي بأي حال من الأحوال، سواء القصف المستدعى لمساعدة القوات الإسرائيلية المشتبكة على الأرض، أو القصف الذي يبدو أنه يستهدف وجود مقاومين في المناطق السكنية، أو الذي يُقصد به إيقاع المزيد من الخسائر بين المدنيين وإثارة الرعب والدفع بهم نحو جنوب القطاع وقد يكون تمهيدًا لدفعهم نحو التهجير إلى سيناء، كما دلَّت عدة شواهد إسرائيلية سواء تصريحات لمسؤولين أو وثائق رسمية مسربة.
ما يعنيه هذا كله أن تحقيق أهداف الحرب المعلنة عسكريًّا لن يكون أمرًا سهلًا وسيتطلب زمنًا طويلًا من القتال الشرس والمدمر، وربما يفضي إلى إيقاع خسائر فادحة في القوات الإسرائيلية. ليس ثمة شك في أن الجانب الإسرائيلي يتمتع بتفوق هائل في ميزان القوة الباطشة، جوًّا وأرضًا. في المقابل، يبدو أن المقاومين الفلسطينيين أكثر استعدادًا في هذه الجولة عما كانوا عليه في 2014، وأنهم يحاولون استغلال الفرصة التي تتيحها حرب القوى غير المتكافئة، وأنهم يقاتلون على أرضهم ووسط شعبهم.
ولكن المؤكد أن هناك أهدافًا غير معلنة للحرب، أبرزها بلا شك هو دفع أهل قطاع غزة، أو معظمهم على الأقل، إلى الهجرة من القطاع ودفعهم إلى مصر، ومنها ربما إلى دول متعددة أخرى سيجري الضغط عليها لاستقبال أعداد منهم كلاجئين. التخلص من سكان القطاع، من وجهة النظر الإسرائيلية، لن يحل مشكلة أمنية لإسرائيل، وحسب، ولكن سيمثل خطوة أولى نحو حل مشكلة التوازن الديمغرافي داخل حدود فلسطين الانتدابية بين العرب المسلمين والمسيحيين، من جهة، واليهود، من جهة أخرى. وهي خطوة أولى إذا نجحت تمهد، آجلًا أو عاجلًا، وفي ظرف موات، لتهجير آخر في الضفة الغربية.
والواضح أن إفشال مشروع التهجير يرتكز في المقام الأول على ذاكرة النكبة التي لا تزال حية وتتناقلها الأجيال، ويتعلق أيضًا بوعي أهالي القطاع وإصرارهم على البقاء والصمود في بلادهم في وجه الموت والتجويع، ولكنه يتعلق أيضًا بصلابة الرفض المصري/الأردني والضغوط العربية والإسلامية على الولايات المتحدة لمنع تأييد نكبة فلسطينية أخرى في قطاع غزة.
تفاعلات الجوار: بين المناوشات والتنديدات
لم يكن خافيًا في كلمات قادة المقاومة الفلسطينية التي صاحبت بداية الحرب أنهم علقوا آمالًا على انفجار الوضع في الضفة الغربية، وعلى وقوف قوى ما بات يُعرف بمحور المقاومة إلى جانبهم، سيما بعد شيوع مفهوم “وحدة الساحات” في لغة الشرق الأوسط السياسية. لم يحاول أحد صياغة تصور محكم للمقصود بوحدة الساحات، ولكن ما بات مفهومًا إلى حدٍّ كبير أنها تعني وحدة مصير بين المقاومة الفلسطينية والفصائل المسلحة المرتبطة بإيران، التي حرصت دائمًا على توكيد عدائها لدولة إسرائيل وحلفائها، وجعلت فلسطين الشعار الأعلى للنفوذ الإيراني الإقليمي.
طوال أسابيع الحرب الأربعة الأولى برزت تكهنات مختلفة حول إمكانية انخراط حزب الله في حرب شاملة، تأييدًا لحلفاء الحزب في غزة وتعزيزًا لمصداقية الشعارات التي رفعتها إيران وحلفاؤها حول الموقف من المسألة الفلسطينية وبيت المقدس. وكان الحزب قد بدأ منذ أيام الحرب الأولى في إحداث مواجهات مسلحة محدودة في منطقة الحدود الإسرائيلية الشمالية، سواء بقصف مواقع للجيش الإسرائيلي أو السماح لمسلحين فلسطينيين ولبنانيين آخرين بمحاولة اختراق الحدود ومهاجمة أهداف إسرائيلية.
ألقى الأمين العام لحزب الله خطابه الأول حول الحرب، يوم الجمعة 3 نوفمبر/تشرين الثاني، بعد أربعة أسابيع على اندلاع الحرب. وقد حمل الخطاب، بعد تحليل تفصيلي لمجريات الحرب والتوكيد على أن قرارها كان فلسطينيًّا بحتًا، توجهًا نحو التهدئة ومحاولة للقول بأن الحزب يقوم بواجبه فعلًا في التضامن مع/والدعم لغزة، وتهديدًا غامضًا بأن انخراطًا أوسع في الحرب مشروط بتصاعد الهجمات الإسرائيلية على لبنان، أو بتدهور وضع المقاومين الفلسطينيين في غزة. كما أشار نصر الله في جزء آخر من خطابه إلى ما تقوم به القوى الموالية لإيران في العراق من هجمات على المواقع الأميركية، وإلى ما حاوله الحوثيون في اليمن (بدون نتيجة تُذكر)، من قصف لأهداف إسرائيلية في إيلات.
ما اتضح في نهاية الشهر الأول من الحرب أن تحالفًا ضمنيًّا بين السلطة الفلسطينية والإسرائيليين عمل على تقييد حركة الفلسطينيين وإجهاض أية محاولة لإشعال انتفاضة وطنية شاملة في الضفة الغربية. قبضة السلطة، من ناحية، والمداهمات وحملات الاعتقال الإسرائيلية واسعة النطاق، من ناحية أخرى، منعت نشاطات التضامن مع غزة في الضفة الغربية من التصاعد إلى ما هو أعلى من التظاهرات والإضرابات والهجمات المعزولة على مواقع تمركز الجيش الإسرائيلي.
في دول الجوار العربي، لم تختلف الأوضاع كثيرًا. نجحت أجهزة الأمن المصرية في منع أي حراك شعبي خارج الجامع الأزهر. أما في الأردن؛ حيث الامتداد التاريخي الإستراتيجي لفلسطين، فقد اشتعلت شوارع المدن الأردنية بحركات الاحتجاج على الحرب والتضامن مع غزة؛ ولكن قوات الأمن الأردنية حرصت على منع أي توجه شعبي أردني إلى منطقة الحدود الفاصلة بين الضفتين الشرقية والغربية. أخيرًا، وفي محاولة لامتصاص الغضب الشعبي، قامت الحكومة الأردنية باستدعاء سفيرها في تل أبيب، احتجاجًا على استمرار الحرب على غزة، بعد أن كان السفير الإسرائيلي في عَمَّان قد أُمر من قبل حكومته بمغادرة الأردن لأسباب أمنية.
في سوريا، لم ينبس الرئيس السوري ببنت شفة، ولا شهدت المدن السورية الواقعة تحت سيطرة النظام ولو تحركًا شعبيًّا واحدًا؛ وكأن النظام السوري أراد توجيه رسالة للقيادة الإسرائيلية والقوى الغربية بأنه غير معني بالحرب، وأنه ليس مسؤولًا عن أي تحرك معاد لإسرائيل عبر الحدود السورية، لأنه لا يسيطر على منطقة الحدود. فقط في المناطق الخارجة عن سيطرة النظام، سيما في إدلب وجوارها، نُظِّمت تحركات تضامنية مع غزة.
عمومًا، فإن الصورة في الجوار العربي لفلسطين لا تعني استبعاد توسع نطاق الحرب بصورة قاطعة. إن طالت العملية العسكرية فإن أحدًا لا يمكنه التحكم في مسارها. وربما يصبح من الصعب على دول الجوار التحكم في أمن الحدود، حتى إن أرادت تجنب الاحتكاك بالإسرائيليين، ليس في سوريا ولبنان وحسب، ولكن في الأردن أيضًا.
صدع دولي: الغرب والبقية
لم يكن خافيًا في أسابيع الحرب الأولى أن الدول الغربية، سيما الولايات المتحدة، تبنَّت مقولة التهديد الوجودي لدولة إسرائيل، واعتمدت الادعاءات الإسرائيلية حول ارتكاب المقاومين الفلسطينيين جرائم بحق المدنيين الإسرائيليين في هجوم السابع من أكتوبر/تشرين الأول. وقد توافد الزعماء الغربيون، وفي مقدمتهم الرئيس الأميركي، جوزيف بايدن، الواحد تلو الآخر إلى تل أبيب للإعراب عن الدعم غير المتحفظ لإسرائيل.
ولكن لغة الدعم المطلق لإسرائيل، وتجاهل السياق الذي اندلعت فيه الحرب، وغض النظر عن القصف الإبادي لقطاع غزة، أخذت في التراجع منذ الأسبوع الرابع للحرب، وبدا كأن واشنطن على وجه الخصوص، بالنظر إلى الخسائر الهائلة في صفوف المدنيين الغزيين، تشعر بعدم الارتياح تجاه الطريقة التي تدير بها إسرائيل الحرب. وهذا ما دفع المسؤولين الأميركيين للضغط على القيادة الإسرائيلية للسماح بإدخال بعض المعونات من الجانب المصري إلى القطاع، والسماح بإرسال عدد من الجرحى الفلسطينيين إلى مصر للتعامل مع الحالات المعقدة، ولكن الموقف الأميركي من رفض الدعوة إلى وقف إطلاق النار لم يتغير.
وزير الخارجية الأميركي، أنتوني بلينكن، الذي يبدو أنه بات طرفًا رئيسًا في إدارة الأزمة، زار الشرق الأوسط مرتين منذ اندلاع الحرب، والتقى بنتنياهو، وحكومة الحرب الإسرائيلية، ونظرائه العرب (وزراء خارجية مصر والأردن والإمارات والسعودية وقطر)، والرئيس الفلسطيني، محمود عباس، وبوزير الخارجية التركي. في كافة لقاءاته، أصرَّ بلينكن على أن الدعوة لوقف إطلاق النار تعد بمنزلة خطوة انتحارية لإسرائيل، وأن الحرب لا يمكن أن تنتهي إلا بعد أن تستعيد إسرائيل الشعور بالأمن. وقال بلينكن: إن الممكن الوحيد الآن هو هدنة إنسانية مؤقتة لتوفير المساعدات لأهل غزة والإفراج عن المدنيين وأصحاب الجنسيات المزدوجة من المحتجزين الإسرائيليين لدى حماس. وبخلاف الموقف الفرنسي، الذي تحرك قليلًا بالتصويت مع القرار الداعي لوقف إطلاق النار في الجمعية العامة للأمم المتحدة، تكاد مواقف الدول الغربية كافة تتطابق مع الموقف الأميركي.
وقد ظهر الموقف الغربي الرسمي في تباين صارخ مع الموقفين، الروسي والصيني. لم يعرب المسؤولون الروس والصينيون عن تعاطفهم مع أهالي قطاع غزة وحسب، ولكنهم دعوا صراحة إلى وقف إطلاق النار ووضع نهاية للحرب، سواء في مجلس الأمن والجمعية العامة للأمم المتحدة، أو في لقاءات صحفية متفرقة. والواضح، أن كلًّا من موسكو وبيجين رأت في الحرب على قطاع غزة، والدعم الغربي الصريح لإسرائيل، فرصة لتوكيد دعوتها إلى بناء نظام عالمي جديد متعدد الأقطاب، وفرصة أخرى لتعزيز موقعها ونفوذها في الشرق الأوسط.
تركيا وإيران أعربتا عن موقف مؤيد لفلسطين وشعبها. وليس ثمة شك في أن الرأي العام الفلسطيني والعربي والإسلامي علَّق آمالًا كبيرة على تركيا، نظرًا لوزنها الإقليمي وعلاقاتها القوية بالمعسكر الغربي. ولأن الموقف التركي تطور بصورة أبطأ من المتوقع، تعرضت أنقرة لانتقادات حادة في أسابيع الحرب الأولى، بما في ذلك من قطاعات واسعة من الشعب التركي المؤيد لحزب العدالة والتنمية الحاكم.
في الواقع، اتخذت تركيا موقفًا صلبًا في مؤتمر وزراء خارجية دول منظمة التعاون الإسلامي الذي عُقد بجدة، وكان الخلاف حول مسودة البيان الختامي المقترح من الوفد التركي أدى إلى تأجيل إصداره إلى مؤتمر لاحق للوزراء. وكان واضحًا على أية حال أن لا الولايات المتحدة ولا إسرائيل تريد إفساح الطريق لدورٍ تركيٍّ ما في الأزمة. وهذا ما أدى أخيرًا إلى صدور قرار بسحب السفير التركي من تل أبيب، بعد أن كان السفير الإسرائيلي في أنقرة قد سُحب لأسباب أمنية، وتصريح الرئيس التركي بوقف الاتصالات مع رئيس الحكومة الإسرائيلي، نتنياهو، ولكن أنقرة لم تتخذ قرارًا بقطع العلاقات، ربما لأنها قد تكون توازن بين مقتضيات مصالحها القومية ومقتضيات دعمها للقضية الفلسطينية، وكذلك ربما أن المسؤولين الأتراك لا زالوا يعتقدون أن بإمكان بلادهم لعب دور ما في إنهاء الحرب وفي الترتيبات التي يمكن أن تلي نهاية الحرب.
على صعيد الرأي العام العالمي، بما في ذلك الرأي العام الغربي، تبلورت صورة مختلفة إلى حد كبير. فبعد تردد أولي، وحيرة تسبب فيها الانحياز الإعلامي الغربي الصارخ للرواية الإسرائيلية، تحركت جموع حاشدة في كافة مدن العالم الكبرى، دعت لوقف إطلاق النار وحملت الجانب الإسرائيلي المسؤولية عن اندلاع الحرب والكارثة الإنسانية التي يشهدها قطاع غزة.
نهاية الحرب وعواقبها
ليس من الممكن التنبؤ بحدود هذه الحرب، لا حدودها الزمنية ولا المكانية. ما إن تندلع الحروب متعددة الأبعاد حتى يتراجع اليقين، بل وحتى خطط الحرب المسبقة تصبح في أغلبها بلا جدوى. ثمة عدد من العوامل المتدافعة التي يمكن أن تقرر أفق الحرب ونهايتها:
1- الخسائر التي يمكن أن يتكبدها الجيش الإسرائيلي في عملية الاجتياح الأرضي.
2- المدى الذي يمكن أن تصل إليه إسرائيل في تحقيق أهداف الحرب المعلنة وغير المعلنة.
3- تكشف حقائق الإبادة الجارية في قطاع غزة، وضغوط الرأي العام المتصاعدة، المطالبة بوقف الحرب، على الحكومات الغربية، سيما الولايات المتحدة.
4- مصير المحتجزين والأسرى الإسرائيليين لدى المقاومة الفلسطينية.
5-إمكانية توسع نطاق الحرب في الجوار العربي.
وحتى تنتهي الحرب، يميل النقاش الجاري إلى بناء تصورات لغزة سواء لوضع سكانها أو للسلطة التي تحكمها، فيعمل الجانب العربي الرسمي، وتركيا، على بقاء أهالي القطاع في بلادهم، ويدعو إلى إعادة إطلاق عملية سلام جادة للتوصل إلى حل نهائي للقضية الفلسطيينية وقيام دولة فلسطينية مستقلة. ويدور في سياق الحديث عن حكم غزة دون حماس أفكار حول تشكيل قوة أمنية من دول الجوار الإقليمي، تحافظ على أمن القطاع طوال مرحلة انتقالية، تصل إلى قيام دولة فلسطينية، وتشمل ربما عودة السلطة الفلسطينية إلى إدارة شؤون القطاع. وفي الظاهر، على الأقل، تبدو الولايات المتحدة، صاحبة القول الأهم في مجريات الأزمة، على استعداد لبحث هذه التصورات. لكن هذه التصورات قائمة على تقدير أن إسرائيل ستنجح في هزيمة حماس، لكن في التجارب المماثلة للقتال غير المتكافئ، مثل أفغانستان أو فيتنام والجزائر حال حرب التحرير، انتصرت حركات المقاومة، وفرضت على المناهضين لها الاعتراف بشرعيتها، ولا يمكن استبعاد هذا الاحتمال إذا صمدت حماس وحافظت على وجودها ومنعت إسرائيل من اقتلاع سلطتها.
في الجانب الإسرائيلي، تستند كافة الأفكار لما بعد الحرب إلى فرضية النجاح في تحقيق الأهداف الإسرائيلية؛ الأمر الذي لا يبدو مستندًا إلى تقديرات بمواصلة القوات الإسرائيلية القتال لفترة طويلة وإبادة عشرات، وربما مئات ألوف الغزيين. ثمة مؤشرات متزايدة على أن الحكومة الإسرائيلية لم تزل مصرة على تهجير جزئي أو كلي لأهالي القطاع، وعودة الجيش الإسرائيلي للسيطرة المباشرة على القطاع، سواء بضمه أو غير ضمه رسميًّا لإسرائيل. وحتى إن لم ينجح مشروع التهجير، يريد الإسرائيليون الاحتفاظ بدور أمني في القطاع، شبيه بالدور الذي يقومون به في الضفة الغربية.
على صعيد إقليمي ودولي أوسع، وبالرغم من المساحة الجغرافية المحدودة التي تجري عليها الحرب، فلابد أن يُنظر إلى هذه الحلقة من حلقات الصراع على فلسطين، ومهما كانت طبيعة نهايتها، باعتبارها أكبر أثرًا من حربي 1948 و1967. ثمة قوى إقليمية سترى تعاظمًا أو انحسارًا في نفوذها تبعًا لموقفها من/ودورها في الحرب. والمؤكد، أن الأنظمة العربية المتحالفة مع الغرب ستواجه تحديات أصعب وأكثر تعقيدًا من تلك التي واجهتها في سنوات الربيع العربي القصيرة، فلقد تباينت مواقفها بين دول حمَّلت إسرائيل المسؤولية الكاملة للعدوان شرعت في الابتعاد عن إسرائيل باستدعاء سفرائها مثل الأردن والبحرين، ودول أجَّلت مساعي التطبيع، ودول تشارك في المجهود الحربي الغربي. خلف ذلك كله، سيشهد النفوذ الغربي، الثقافي-الفكري والسياسي، تراجعًا ملموسًا في السنوات المقبلة. وإن كان هناك من رابح رئيس من هذه الحرب، فلابد أن تكون الصين وروسيا في مقدمة الرابحين.
المصدر: مركز الجزيرة للدراسات
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