قناة بن جوريون عبر غزة.. البديل الإسرائيلي المحتمل لقناة السويس

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يقول محللون إن إسرائيل تعمل على إعادة احتلال قطاع غزة لإحياء مشروع بناء قناة بن جوريون، التي ترغب تل أبيب وحلفاؤها في تكون بديلا لقناة السويس المصرية لأسباب فنية وسياسية، وفقا لماتيجا سيريتش في تحليل بمركز “أوراسيا ريفيو” للأبحاث (Eurasia review).

سيريتش أردف، في التحليل الذي ترجمه “الخليج الجديد”، أن القناة ستربط خليج العقبة (إيلات) في البحر الأحمر بالبحر الأبيض المتوسط، وستمر عبر إسرائيل وتنتهي في غزة (عسقلان) أو بالقرب منها، وهي بديل لقناة السويس ظهر في الستينيات بعد تأميم (الرئيس المصري جمال) عبد الناصر لقناة السويس (كانت تحت الإدارة البريطانية)”.

وتابع أن “فكرة قناة (ديفيد) بن جوريون (أول رئيس وزراء لدولة الاحتلال) ظهرت مجددا في الوقت الذي تم فيه توقيع اتفاقيات إبراهيم (لتطبيع العلاقات) بين إسرائيل والإمارات والبحرين والمغرب والسودان” في عام 2020، بوساطة أمريكية.

وأضاف أنه “في 2 أبريل (نيسان) 2021، أعلنت إسرائيل أنه من المتوقع أن يبدأ العمل في القناة بحلول يونيو (حزيران) من العام ذاته، لكن ذلك لم يحدث”.

السويس وبن جوريون

و”أهمية قناة السويس للاقتصاد العالمي لا تقدر بثمن، وقد تم افتتاحها في عام 1867، مما جعل من الممكن تقصير طريق الشحن بين أوروبا وأفريقيا وآسيا (…)، وهي ضرورية لنقل النفط والغاز من الشرق الأوسط إلى الأسواق الأوروبية والشرق الأقصى”، كما زاد سيريتش.

وتابع أنه “تمر عبر القناة سنويا حوالي 25 ألف سفينة وتنقل ما بين 12 إلى 13% من التجارة العالمية، وهي المشروع الاقتصادي الأكثر قيمة في مصر، وحققت في السنة المالية 2022-2023 إيرادات قياسية بلغت 9.4 مليار دولار، أي حوالي 2% من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي للبلاد”.

واعتبر سيريتش أن “قناة بن جوريون ستكون أكثر كفاءة من قناة السويس؛ لأنها بالإضافة إلى قدرتها على استيعاب عدد أكبر من السفن، ستمكن من المرور المتزامن لسفن النقل الكبيرة في الاتجاهين عبر تصميم ذراعين للقناة”.

وأردف أنه “على عكس قناة السويس، التي تقع على طول الشواطئ الرملية، فإن القناة الإسرائيلية ستكون لها جدران صخرية لا تحتاج إلى أي صيانة تقريبا، وتخطط إسرائيل لبناء مدن صغيرة وفنادق ومطاعم ومقاهٍ على طول القناة”.

واستطرد: “وسيكون عمق كل فرع للقناة 50 مترا وعرضه حوالي 200 متر، وسيكون أعمق من قناة السويس بـ10 أمتار، ويمكن للسفن البالغ طولها 300 متر وعرضها 110 أمتار أن تمر عبر القناة، وهو حجم أكبر السفن في العالم”.

وقال سيريتش إن “بناء القناة سيستغرق 5 سنوات وسيشارك فيها 300 ألف مهندس وفني من جميع أنحاء العالم، وتتراوح تكلفتها بين 16 و55 مليار دولار، وستكسب منها إسرائيل 6 مليارات دولار سنويا”.

وأفاد بأن “مَن يسيطر على القناة، وهو لا يمكن أن يكون سوى إسرائيل وحلفائها في المقام الأول الولايات المتحدة وبريطانيا، سيكون له تأثير كبير على سلاسل التوريد الدولية للنفط والغاز والحبوب والتجارة العالمية بشكل عام”.

غزة والقناة

و”على الرغم من أنها لم تكن الفكرة الأصلية، إلا أنه وفقا لرغبة سياسيين إسرائيليين، يمكن أن يكون آخر ميناء للقناة في غزة، وإذا تم تدمير غزة وتسويتها بالأرض وتهجير الفلسطينيين، وهو ما سيحدث هذا الخريف، فمن شأن ذلك أن يساعد المخططين على خفض التكاليف وتقصير مسار القناة بتحويلها إلى غزة”، وفقا لسيريتش.

وتابع أنه “حتى لو لم تنتهي القناة في غزة نفسها، فمن الصعب تصديق أن الإسرائيليين سيبنونها بالقرب من أرض فلسطينية معادية مثل عسقلان”.

ومضى قائلا إن “مسافة القناة التي لا تتجاوز بضع عشرات من الكيلومترات من غزة ستجعلها عرضة للهجمات الفلسطينية بالصواريخ ومدافع الهاوتزر والطائرات بدون طيار، ولهذا فإن السيطرة العسكرية الإسرائيلية على غزة شريط أساسي لبناء القناة”.

وشدد الخبير السياسي الفلسطيني الدكتور سامي العريان على “الأهمية العسكرية والاقتصادية والطاقوية والاستراتيجية لقناة بن جوريون، التي ستقصر أيضا الطريق عبر أفريقيا بثلاثة أسابيع، وسيكون لذلك تأثير قوي على الطرق العالمية وسيلعب حتما دورا متصاعدا في التوترات الإقليمية وتأجيج الحرب”.

وأضاف أنه “سيكون لهذا التطوير آثارا مباشرة على بحر إيجه والبحر المتوسط، ما يتطلب التعاون بين مصر وتركيا (كمتضررين)”.

دوافع الغرب

وإلى جانب إسرائيل، بحسب سيريتش، فإن “القوى الغربية، ولاسيما الولايات المتحدة والاتحاد الأوروبي، لديها دوافع لخلق بدائل للسويس، فالقناة المصرية ضيقة وضحلة، ومن الممكن أن تُسد بسهولة وتحدث اختناقات مرورية متكررة”.

وتابع: “بالإضافة إلى الإغلاق المصري للقناة لأسباب سياسية خلال الخمسينيات والستينيات والسبعينيات، كان هناك إغلاقا طبيعيا، ففي مارس (آذار) 2021، تم إغلاق القناة لستة أيام بسبب جنوح سفينة حاويات في منتصف المجرى المائي بسبب هبوب رياح قوية، ما عرقل حركة المرور”.

وشدد على أن “الإغلاق المفروض على أحد أكثر طرق التجارة ازدحاما في العالم أدى إلى تباطؤ التجارة بشكل كبير بين أوروبا وآسيا والشرق الأوسط، وكان يوجد ما لا يقل عن 369 سفينة تنتظر في الطابور للمرور من القناة ببضائع بقيمة 9.6 مليار دولار”.

سيريتش أردف أن “الموانئ وشركات الشحن ووكلاء الشحن والمصانع ومحلات السوبر ماركت والحكومات وأصحاب المصلحة الآخرين تكبدوا خسائر فادحة، وهو ما لا يريد أحد تجربته مرة أخرى”.

واستدرك: “لكن بجانب المشاكل الفنية لقناة السويس، توجد أسباب سياسية تجعل الغرب يرغب في الحصول على بديل لها، إذ لا يريد الغرب في الاعتماد على قناة تسيطر عليها مصر، الحليف الوثيق لروسيا التي يعتبرها الغرب تهديدا أمنيا كبيرا” .

و”إلى جانب كونها حليفا وثيقا لروسيا، تعد القاهرة أيضا شريكا مهما للصين (المنافس الاستراتيجي للولايات المتحدة)، بينما يريد الأمريكيون وشركاؤهم عرقلة مشروع طريق الحرير الصيني الجديد العملاق (تجاري)، والذي تلعب فيه مصر دورا مهما”، كما ختم سيريتش.

المصدر | ماتيجا سيريتش/ أوراسيا ريفيو- ترجمة وتحرير الخليج الجديد

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