من سمات المشهد السوري حالة التقلب المستمر في موازين القوى، ومعالم المشهد الميداني، بحيث يتعذر الركون إلى صورة محددة، بسبب تقلب مواقف الدول الداعمة والفاعلة والمتدخلة لصالح طرفي الصراع
إحدى أبرز سمات المسألة السورية منذ بدايتها حتى الساعة هي حالة التقلب المستمر في موازين القوى، ومعالم المشهد الميداني، بحيث يتعذر الركون إلى صورة محددة، بسبب تقلب مواقف الدول الداعمة والفاعلة والمتدخلة لصالح طرفي الصراع. طوال العام المنصرم 2017 وحتى نهايته كانت معالم المشهد الميداني والسياسي توحي بأن: – (الحرب انتهت) لصالح النظام وحليفيه الروسي والايراني. – المعارضة المسلحة هزمت وحوصرت، والمعارضة السياسية فقدت حلفاءها وداعميها. – بدأت جهود روسيا السياسية تؤتي ثمارها لفرض أجندتها وشروطها عبر آستانة. – تركيا كانت بين مخالب روسيا وايران واضطرت للانضمام إليهما في ضمن الدول الضامنة حول سورية. – الدول العربية الأخرى وخاصة الخليجية انشغلت بصراعاتها ومشاكلها وتخلت عن سورية لروسيا. – الادارة الأميركية الجديدة سارت على نهج سابقتها ادارة أوباما، وواصلت عدم الاكتراث بسورية, لا سيما بعد القضاء على داعش، تاركة لروسيا معالجتها كما لو أنها تعترف بها (مستعمرة روسية) – الدول الأوروبية من فرنسا إلى المانيا وايطاليا راجعت سياساتها تجاه المسألة ، وأخذت تقترب من الرؤية الروسية أيضًا مما خلق بيئة دولية دافئة لروسيا وايران والأسد. – مؤتمر سوتشي سيكون المحطة الأخيرة لتشييع الثورة السورية إلى مثواها الأخير في المقبرة الروسية. هكذا كانت معالم المشهد السوري قبيل نهاية العام المنصرم ميدانيًا وسياسيًا، محليًا وعربيًا ودوليًا. غير أن بضعة تطورات مفاجئة وغير متوقعة قلبت الصورة، وخلقت أوضاعًا جديدة، وتنذر بتغيير المعادلات وموازين القوى لتعيد تشكيل الخرائط والمعالم. أهم هذه التطورات خمسة: الأول – الهجمات الثلاث المتلاحقة على القاعدتين الروسيتين حميميم وطرطوس. فقد أطلق مجهولون ثلاثة صواريخ على القاعدة الأولى، أسقطتها الدفاعات الروسية لكنها أنذرت بدخول سلاح جديد إلى قوى المعارضة. وقالت موسكو فورًا إن هناك من زود المعارضة بسلاح نوعي جديد. وبعد أيام قصف مجهولون القاعدة نفسها بقذائف هاون دمرت سبع طائرات وقتلت أربعة جنود على الأقل حسب صحيفة كومرسانت. وبعدها بثلاثة أيام انطلقت 13 طائرة صغيرة بدون طيار نحو حميميم وقاعدة طرطوس، ولكن الدفاعات الروسية أسقطتها قبل أن تصل إلى أهدافها. هذه الحوادث الثلاث شكلت تحديًا غير مسبوق للروس في سورية وأنذرت بتصعيد جديد في الميدان يهدد الوجود الروسي، وينطوي على احتمال تطور غير مضبوط في الصراع يناقض أوهام القيادة الروسية وحليفيها بنهاية الحرب والصراع لصالحهم. الثاني – سقوط عدة طائرات حربية في الأيام الأخيرة من العام المنصرم للروس والنظام، فوق دمشق وحماة وادلب، وزعم الروس أن طائرتهم سقطت نتيجة عطل فني، غير أن القرائن تؤكد سقوطها بسلاح مضاد، مثلها مثل طائرتين للنظام في نفس الفترة. ويلتقي هذا التطور مع سابقه في مغزاه العسكري. الثالث – الملحمة العسكرية التي خاضتها وما زالت تخوضها قوات المعارضة في الغوطة الشرقية حيث يحاصر الثوار أكبر قاعدة عسكرية للنظام في الغوطة الشرقية، وقد خسر النظام عددًا كبيرًا من قادته العسكريين في هذه المعركة وفشلت قوات نخبته على مواجهة المقاتلين رغم الدعم الروسي الجوي المكثف ودعم القوات الايرانية للفرقتين الرابعة والثالثة. ويحاصر الثوار الآن حوالي 200 – 300 جندي وضابط للنظام، يقال إن وزير الدفاع السابق فهد الفريج بينهم، ويرجح أن يكون سبب إقالته درءً للفضيحة العالمية إذا قتل أو وقع في أسر الثوار! هذه المعركة تعطي دليلًا قاطعًا على هزال واهتراء قوات النظام وضعفه وعلى قوة المعارضة وقدرتها لا سيما أن سيطرتها على القاعدة سيفتح أبواب دمشق أمامها! الرابع – الانتفاضة الايرانية التي هزت صورة نظام الملالي في طهران بقوة، وكان من أهم محركاتها التورط الايراني في الصراع السوري لصالح الأسد، وظهر الشارع غاضبًا ورافضًا لهذه السياسة وطالب بالانسحاب من سورية وبقية الدول العربية العراق ولبنان واليمن . هذه الانتفاضة أظهرت تآكل شرعية النظام وافتقار سياسته العدوانية في الاقليم ولا سيما سورية للقاعدة الشعبية في الداخل الايراني، مما ينذر بتطورات جذرية في الوضع الايراني وانعكاساته على سورية. الخامس – النزاع التركي مع الضامنين الروسي والايراني بسبب هجوم قوات النظام والايرانيين على ريفي حماة وادلب والتهديد باجتياح ادلب، أكبر محافظة خارج سيطرة الأسد وحلفائه. تكمن أهمية هذا النزاع في أنه يشير إلى أن ما سمي حلفًا اقليميًا بين روسيا وايران وتركيا هو كلام مبالغ فيه، وأن العلاقة بين الثلاثة هشة جدًا وغير راسخة، وقابلة للانفراط بسرعة لا سيما أن الروس يتهمون تركيا بالتساهل في تمرير الأسلحة والطائرات التي استهدفت قاعدتيهم في الساحل، الأمر الذي قد يتطور إلى مواجهة واسعة على غرار ما حدث في نهاية 2015 بعد اسقاط الأتراك لطائرة روسية، نحن في المحصلة أمام خمسة تطورات نوعية وكبيرة تهدد بقض مضاجع الروس وتبديد أوهام النصر التي خامرت الرئيس بوتين، وقد تحيلها كوابيس مرعبة في القريب العاجل لهم ولحليفيهم السوري والايراني أيضًا، خصوصًا إذا كانت الاتهامات الروسية لأميركا بالضلوع فيها، لأنه يعني أن أميركا بدأت تراجع سياستها وقررت التصدي للروس والايرانيين لإفساد استقرارهم في سورية، وكان وزير الدفاع الأميركي أكد في أكثر من مناسبة بأنهم لن ينسحبوا من سورية وأن بقاءهم سيطول !
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{Tôi rất vui để tìm thấy trang này. Tôi muốn cảm ơn bạn {vì đã|dành thời gian cho|chỉ vì điều này|vì điều này|cho bài đọc tuyệt vời này!! Tôi chắc chắn yêu thích từng một phần nó và tôi cũng đã đánh dấu trang để xem điều mới trong trang web của bạn.|Tôi có thể chỉ nói rằng thật thoải mái để tìm thấy một người mà thực sự hiểu họ là gì thảo luận trên mạng. Bạn chắc chắn nhận ra cách đưa một rắc rối ra ánh sáng và làm cho nó trở nên quan trọng. Nhiều người hơn nữa cần xem điều này và hiểu khía cạnh này câu chuyện của bạn. Tôi đã ngạc nhiên bạn không nổi tiếng hơn vì bạn chắc chắn nhất có món quà.|Rất tốt bài viết. Tôi hoàn toàn đánh giá cao trang web này. Tiếp tục làm tốt!|Thật khó tìm những người có hiểu biết sâu rộng về điều này, tuy nhiên, bạn có vẻ bạn biết mình đang nói gì! Cảm ơn|Bạn nên tham gia một cuộc thi dành cho một blog trực tuyến tuyệt vời nhất. Tôi sẽ khuyến nghị trang web này!|Một hấp dẫn chắc chắn đáng giá bình luận. Không còn nghi ngờ gì nữa rằng bạn cần viết thêm về chủ đề này, nó có thể không là một điều cấm kỵ chủ đề nhưng điển hình mọi người không thảo luận chủ đề những điều này. Đến phần tiếp theo! Chúc mừng!|Xin chào! Tôi chỉ muốn cho bạn một rất to cho thông tin tuyệt vời bạn có ngay tại đây trên bài đăng này. Tôi sẽ là trở lại trang web của bạn để biết thêm thông tin sớm nhất.|Sau khi tôi ban đầu để lại bình luận tôi có vẻ như đã nhấp hộp kiểm -Thông báo cho tôi khi có bình luận mới- và từ bây giờ bất cứ khi nào có bình luận được thêm vào tôi nhận được 4 email có cùng nội dung. Có lẽ có một cách bạn có thể xóa tôi khỏi dịch vụ đó không? Kudos.|Lần sau Tôi đọc một blog, Hy vọng rằng nó sẽ không thất bại nhiều như bài này. Ý tôi là, Tôi biết điều đó là sự lựa chọn của tôi để đọc, tuy nhiên tôi thực sự nghĩ có lẽ có điều gì đó thú vị để nói về. Tất cả những gì tôi nghe được là một loạt phàn nàn về điều gì đó mà bạn có thể sửa nếu bạn không quá bận tìm kiếm sự chú ý.|Đúng với bài viết này, tôi thành thật cảm thấy trang web này cần nhiều hơn nữa sự chú ý.
{Tôi cực kỳ hài lòng khám phá trang web này. Tôi muốn cảm ơn bạn {vì đã|dành thời gian cho|chỉ vì điều này|vì điều này|cho bài đọc tuyệt vời này!! Tôi chắc chắn thích từng một phần nó và tôi đã đánh dấu để xem thông tin mới trên trang web của bạn.|Tôi có thể chỉ nói rằng thật nhẹ nhõm để khám phá một người thực sự biết họ là gì đang nói về trên mạng. Bạn chắc chắn nhận ra cách đưa một vấn đề ra ánh sáng và làm cho nó trở nên quan trọng. Nhiều người hơn nữa nên đọc điều này và hiểu khía cạnh này của. Thật ngạc nhiên bạn không nổi tiếng hơn vì bạn chắc chắn sở hữu món quà.|Xuất sắc bài đăng. Tôi chắc chắn yêu thích trang web này. Cảm ơn!|Thật khó tìm những người có hiểu biết sâu rộng cho điều này, nhưng bạn có vẻ bạn biết mình đang nói gì! Cảm ơn|Bạn cần tham gia một cuộc thi dành cho một trang web trên mạng hữu ích nhất. Tôi sẽ Rất khuyến nghị blog này!|Một hấp dẫn đáng giá bình luận. Không còn nghi ngờ gì nữa rằng bạn nên xuất bản thêm về chủ đề này, nó có thể không là một điều cấm kỵ vấn đề nhưng điển hình mọi người không nói về vấn đề những điều này. Đến phần tiếp theo! Chúc mừng.|Xin chào! Tôi chỉ muốn đề nghị rất to cho thông tin tuyệt vời bạn có ngay tại đây trên bài đăng này. Tôi sẽ là trở lại blog của bạn để biết thêm thông tin sớm nhất.|Khi tôi ban đầu bình luận tôi có vẻ như đã nhấp hộp kiểm -Thông báo cho tôi khi có bình luận mới- và từ bây giờ bất cứ khi nào có bình luận được thêm vào tôi nhận được 4 email cùng chính xác một bình luận. Có một phương pháp dễ dàng bạn có thể xóa tôi khỏi dịch vụ đó không? Chúc mừng.|Lần sau Tôi đọc một blog, Hy vọng rằng nó sẽ không làm tôi thất vọng nhiều như bài này. Rốt cuộc, Vâng, đó là sự lựa chọn của tôi để đọc, nhưng tôi thực sự nghĩ bạn sẽ có điều gì đó thú vị để nói. Tất cả những gì tôi nghe được là một loạt rên rỉ về điều gì đó mà bạn có thể sửa nếu bạn không quá bận tìm kiếm sự chú ý.|Đúng với bài viết này, tôi thực sự tin trang web này cần nhiều hơn nữa sự chú ý.
{Tôi đã hạnh phúc hơn cả vui khám phá trang này. Tôi cần cảm ơn bạn {vì đã|dành thời gian cho|chỉ vì điều này|vì điều này|cho bài đọc tuyệt vời này!! Tôi chắc chắn thưởng thức từng của nó và tôi đã đánh dấu để xem những thứ mới trên blog của bạn.|Tôi có thể chỉ nói rằng thật thoải mái để khám phá một người thực sự hiểu họ là gì thảo luận trực tuyến. Bạn chắc chắn hiểu cách đưa một rắc rối ra ánh sáng và làm cho nó trở nên quan trọng. Nhiều người hơn nữa thực sự cần kiểm tra điều này và hiểu khía cạnh này câu chuyện của bạn. Tôi đã ngạc nhiên rằng bạn không nổi tiếng hơn vì bạn chắc chắn nhất có món quà.|Rất hay bài viết. Tôi hoàn toàn yêu thích trang web này. Tiếp tục với nó!|Thật khó tìm những người có học thức trong chủ đề cụ thể này, tuy nhiên, bạn nghe có vẻ bạn biết mình đang nói gì! Cảm ơn|Bạn nên là một phần của một cuộc thi dành cho một blog trên web hữu ích nhất. Tôi sẽ khuyến nghị trang web này!|Một hấp dẫn chắc chắn đáng giá bình luận. Tôi tin rằng bạn cần xuất bản thêm về chủ đề này, nó có thể không là một điều cấm kỵ chủ đề nhưng điển hình mọi người không nói về chủ đề những điều này. Đến phần tiếp theo! Trân trọng!|Xin chào! Tôi chỉ muốn cho bạn một rất cho thông tin xuất sắc bạn có ở đây trên bài đăng này. Tôi sẽ là quay lại blog của bạn để biết thêm thông tin sớm nhất.|Sau khi tôi ban đầu để lại bình luận tôi có vẻ như đã nhấp vào hộp kiểm -Thông báo cho tôi khi có bình luận mới- và bây giờ bất cứ khi nào có bình luận được thêm vào tôi nhận được bốn email cùng chính xác một bình luận. Có lẽ có một phương tiện bạn có thể xóa tôi khỏi dịch vụ đó không? Cảm ơn rất nhiều.|Lần sau Tôi đọc một blog, Tôi hy vọng rằng nó không thất bại nhiều như bài này. Ý tôi là, Vâng, đó là sự lựa chọn của tôi để đọc hết, dù sao thì tôi thực sự nghĩ bạn sẽ có điều gì đó hữu ích để nói về. Tất cả những gì tôi nghe được là một loạt rên rỉ về điều gì đó mà bạn có thể sửa nếu bạn không quá bận tìm kiếm sự chú ý.|Đúng với bài viết này, tôi thực sự nghĩ trang web này cần nhiều hơn nữa sự chú ý.
{Tôi háo hức để tìm thấy trang này. Tôi muốn cảm ơn bạn {vì đã|dành thời gian cho|chỉ vì điều này|vì điều này|cho bài đọc tuyệt vời này!! Tôi chắc chắn yêu thích từng một phần nó và tôi đã lưu làm mục ưa thích để xem những thứ mới trong blog của bạn.|Tôi có thể chỉ nói rằng thật nhẹ nhõm để khám phá một cá nhân mà thực sự biết họ là gì thảo luận trên web. Bạn thực sự biết cách đưa một rắc rối ra ánh sáng và làm cho nó trở nên quan trọng. Nhiều người hơn cần phải xem điều này và hiểu khía cạnh này của. Tôi không thể tin bạn không nổi tiếng hơn vì bạn chắc chắn sở hữu món quà.|Xuất sắc bài viết trên blog. Tôi chắc chắn yêu thích trang web này. Tiếp tục viết!|Thật gần như không thể tìm thấy những người có học thức trong chủ đề cụ thể này, nhưng bạn có vẻ bạn biết mình đang nói gì! Cảm ơn|Bạn nên tham gia một cuộc thi dành cho một blog trên mạng tốt nhất. Tôi chắc chắn sẽ Rất khuyến nghị trang web này!|Một cuộc thảo luận thú vị chắc chắn đáng giá bình luận. Tôi tin rằng bạn cần xuất bản thêm về vấn đề này, nó có thể không là một điều cấm kỵ vấn đề nhưng điển hình mọi người không nói về chủ đề những điều này. Đến phần tiếp theo! Cảm ơn rất nhiều!|Chào buổi sáng! Tôi chỉ muốn đề nghị rất to cho thông tin xuất sắc bạn có ngay tại đây trên bài đăng này. Tôi sẽ là quay lại trang web của bạn để biết thêm thông tin sớm nhất.|Sau khi tôi ban đầu để lại bình luận tôi có vẻ như đã nhấp vào hộp kiểm -Thông báo cho tôi khi có bình luận mới- và từ bây giờ mỗi lần được thêm vào tôi nhận được 4 email có cùng nội dung. Có lẽ có một cách bạn có thể xóa tôi khỏi dịch vụ đó không? Cảm ơn bạn.|Lần sau nữa Tôi đọc một blog, Hy vọng rằng nó sẽ không thất bại nhiều như bài này. Rốt cuộc, Vâng, đó là sự lựa chọn của tôi để đọc hết, nhưng tôi thực sự tin bạn sẽ có điều gì đó hữu ích để nói về. Tất cả những gì tôi nghe được là một loạt khóc lóc về điều gì đó mà bạn có thể sửa nếu bạn không quá bận tìm kiếm sự chú ý.|Đúng với bài viết này, tôi thành thật cảm thấy trang web tuyệt vời này cần nhiều hơn nữa sự chú ý.
{Tôi khá hài lòng khám phá trang web này. Tôi cần cảm ơn bạn {vì đã|dành thời gian cho|chỉ vì điều này|vì điều này|cho bài đọc tuyệt vời này!! Tôi chắc chắn thưởng thức từng của nó và tôi đã đã đánh dấu trang để xem điều mới trên trang web của bạn.|Tôi có thể chỉ nói rằng thật thoải mái để tìm thấy một cá nhân mà thực sự hiểu họ là gì thảo luận trực tuyến. Bạn chắc chắn nhận ra cách đưa một vấn đề ra ánh sáng và làm cho nó trở nên quan trọng. Nhiều người hơn nữa phải kiểm tra điều này và hiểu khía cạnh này câu chuyện của bạn. Tôi đã ngạc nhiên rằng bạn không nổi tiếng hơn cho rằng bạn chắc chắn có món quà.|Xuất sắc bài viết. Tôi chắc chắn yêu thích trang web này. Tiếp tục với nó!|Thật khó tìm những người có hiểu biết sâu rộng về điều này, nhưng bạn nghe có vẻ bạn biết mình đang nói gì! Cảm ơn|Bạn nên là một phần của một cuộc thi dành cho một blog trên web tốt nhất. Tôi chắc chắn sẽ Rất khuyến nghị trang web này!|Một cuộc thảo luận thú vị chắc chắn đáng giá bình luận. Tôi nghĩ rằng bạn nên viết thêm về vấn đề này, nó có thể không là một điều cấm kỵ vấn đề nhưng điển hình mọi người không nói về chủ đề những điều này. Đến phần tiếp theo! Chúc mọi điều tốt đẹp nhất!|Xin chào! Tôi chỉ muốn cho bạn một rất cho thông tin tuyệt vời bạn có ngay tại đây trên bài đăng này. Tôi sẽ là trở lại trang web của bạn để biết thêm thông tin sớm nhất.|Sau khi tôi ban đầu bình luận tôi có vẻ như đã nhấp vào hộp kiểm -Thông báo cho tôi khi có bình luận mới- và từ bây giờ mỗi lần được thêm vào tôi nhận được 4 email cùng chính xác một bình luận. Phải có một phương pháp dễ dàng bạn có thể xóa tôi khỏi dịch vụ đó không? Cảm ơn.|Lần sau Tôi đọc một blog, Tôi hy vọng rằng nó sẽ không thất bại nhiều như bài này. Rốt cuộc, Vâng, đó là sự lựa chọn của tôi để đọc hết, nhưng tôi thực sự nghĩ có lẽ có điều gì đó hữu ích để nói. Tất cả những gì tôi nghe được là một loạt tiếng rên rỉ về điều gì đó mà bạn có thể sửa nếu bạn không quá bận tìm kiếm sự chú ý.|Đúng với bài viết này, tôi thực sự tin rằng trang web này cần nhiều hơn nữa sự chú ý.
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